Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

企业安全生产管理责任矩阵应用

在全面分析安全生产责任矩阵的基础上,进一步提出针对落实企业安全生产主体责任的企业安全生产管理责任矩阵新方法。围绕企业安全生产责任管理,彻底分解企业安全生产管理任务,明确划分企业安全生产管理个人和部门的角色,并按照每一项安全生产任务有且只有一个角色、每一个角色至少参与一项安全管理任务的准则,建立一般类型的中小企业安全生产管理责任矩阵,将企业安全生产责任管理有序清晰地体现在一个责任矩阵中,使企业安全生产主体责任管理权有所属、事有所任、责有所归。这对指导和落实企业安全生产主体责任具有一定的参考作用和借鉴意义。     

应用层次分析-模糊综合评判法对煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测

现场测定某矿掘进工作面煤与瓦斯突出的预测指标值,该指标包括:电磁辐射强度、电磁辐射脉冲、软分层厚度、钻屑量、瓦斯涌出初速度和综合指标R;运用层次分析法确定各预测指标的重要程度;利用模糊数学综合评价方法对煤与瓦斯突出的危险性进行综合预测。结果表明,该方法对煤与瓦斯突出的预测结果与综合指标R预测情况符合性较好,具有较强的实用性和可靠性,对煤矿的安全生产工作具有一定的指导作用和借鉴价值。     

不同垃圾渗滤液组合处理工艺中DOM的变化特征

为了快速表征垃圾渗滤液处理过程中有机物的特性变化,分别采用紫外光谱和三维荧光光谱对2种垃圾渗滤液处理工艺不同单元溶解性有机物(DOM)的变化进行了系统分析。结果表明,二级RO和厌氧+好氧+MBR+NF+RO工艺对渗滤液COD和NH3-N的去除率分别为98.7%、99.0%和98.8%、98.6%。随着处理过程的进行,2个处理工艺中DOM的SUVA254、E253/E203分别由0.74、0.33和0.46、0.12下降至0.015、0.014和0.010、0.012,有机物的芳香性和不饱和性下降,脂肪链芳香烃化合物开始增加。不同处理阶段渗透液DOM三维荧光光谱表明,随着处理过程的进行,类富里酸和类蛋白物质的含量逐渐下降,芳构化程度开始降低。其中二级RO系统对渗滤液中类富里酸物质的去除效果较好,而厌氧-好氧-MBR-NF-RO工艺中,类酪氨酸物质主要通过微生物降解去除,NF和RO膜对类富里酸和类腐殖酸物质的截留效果较好。     

Actual and Potential Use of Population Viability Analyses in Recovery of Plant Species Listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Use of population viability analyses (PVAs) in endangered species recovery planning has been met with both support and criticism. Previous reviews promote use of PVA for setting scientifically based, measurable, and objective recovery criteria and recommend improvements to increase the framework's utility. However, others have questioned the value of PVA models for setting recovery criteria and assert that PVAs are more appropriate for understanding relative trade‐offs between alternative management actions. We reviewed 258 final recovery plans for 642 plants listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to determine the number of plans that used or recommended PVA in recovery planning. We also reviewed 223 publications that describe plant PVAs to assess how these models were designed and whether those designs reflected previous recommendations for improvement of PVAs. Twenty‐four percent of listed species had recovery plans that used or recommended PVA. In publications, the typical model was a matrix population model parameterized with ≤5 years of demographic data that did not consider stochasticity, genetics, density dependence, seed banks, vegetative reproduction, dormancy, threats, or management strategies. Population growth rates for different populations of the same species or for the same population at different points in time were often statistically different or varied by >10%. Therefore, PVAs parameterized with underlying vital rates that vary to this degree may not accurately predict recovery objectives across a species’ entire distribution or over longer time scales. We assert that PVA, although an important tool as part of an adaptive‐management program, can help to determine quantitative recovery criteria only if more long‐term data sets that capture spatiotemporal variability in vital rates become available. Lacking this, there is a strong need for viable and comprehensive methods for determining quantitative, science‐based recovery criteria for endangered species with minimal data availability. Uso Actual y Potencial del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional para la Recuperación de Especies de Plantas Enlistadas en el Acta de Especies En Peligro de E.U.A     

Accuracy of Short‐Term Demographic Data in Projecting Long‐Term Fate of Populations

Short‐term surveys are useful in conservation of species if they can be used to reliably predict the long‐term fate of populations. However, statistical evaluations of reliability are rare. We studied how well short‐term demographic data (1999–2002) of tartar catchfly (Silene tatarica), a perennial riparian plant, projected the fate and growth of 23 populations of this species up to the year 2010. Surveyed populations occurred along a river with natural flood dynamics and along a regulated river. Riparian plant populations are affected by flooding, which maintains unvegetated shores, while forest succession proceeds in areas with little flooding. Flooding is less severe along the regulated river, and vegetation overgrowth reduces abundance of tartar catchfly on unvegetated shores. We built matrix models to calculate population growth rates and estimated times to population extinction in natural and in regulated rivers, 13 and 10 populations, respectively. Models predicted population survival well (model predictions matched observed survival in 91% of populations) and accurately predicted abundance increases and decreases in 65% of populations. The observed and projected population growth rates differed significantly in all but 3 populations. In most cases, the model overestimated population growth. Model predictions did not improve when data from more years were used (1999–2006). In the regulated river, the poorest model predictions occurred in areas where cover of other plant species changed the fastest. Although vegetation cover increased in most populations, it decreased in 4 populations along the natural river. Our results highlight the need to combine disturbance and succession dynamics in demographic models and the importance of habitat management for species survival along regulated rivers. Precisión de Datos Demográficos de Corto Plazo en la Proyección del Destino de Poblaciones a Largo Plazo     

三维荧光区域积分评估城市污水中溶解性有机物去除

以三维荧光技术为手段,结合荧光区域积分和聚类分析,考察某城市污水厂污水处理过程中溶解性有机物的去除状况。研究结果表明,采用三维荧光区域积分可以表征城市污水中易降解、可降解和难降解有机物相对含量的变化趋势,能够有效识别污水中溶解性有机物的指纹特征。城市污水中类蛋白等易降解物质含量约占总荧光物质的50%,在污水厂曝气池缺氧段,易降解基质被大量去除。曝气池顺水流方向约225 m处,溶解性有机物的去除已基本完成。三维荧光光谱中区域II和III的积分标准体积与TOC的皮尔森相关指数分别为0.964和0.970。和其他荧光指数相比,这2个区域的积分标准体积与TOC的相关度更高。     

Laboratory analog and numerical study of groundwater flow and solute transport in a karst aquifer with conduit and matrix domains

New mathematical and laboratory methods have been developed for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport in karst aquifers having conduits imbedded in a porous medium, such as limestone. The Stokes equations are used to model the flow in the conduits and the Darcy equation is used for the flow in the matrix. The Beavers–Joseph interface boundary conditions are adopted to describe the flow exchange at the interface boundary between the two domains. A laboratory analog is used to simulate the conduit and matrix domains of a karst aquifer. The conduit domain is located at the bottom of the transparent plexiglas laboratory analog and glass beads occupy the remaining space to represent the matrix domain. Water flows into and out of the two domains separately and each has its own supply and outflow reservoirs. Water and solute are exchanged through an interface between the two domains. Pressure transducers located within the matrix and conduit domains of the analog provide data that is processed and stored in digital format. Dye tracing experiments are recorded using time-lapse imaging. The data and images produced are analyzed by a spatial analysis program. The experiments provide not only hydraulic head distribution but also capture solute front images and mass exchange measurements between the conduit and matrix domains. In the experiment, we measure and record pressures, and quantify flow rates and solute transport. The results present a plausible argument that laboratory analogs can characterize groundwater water flow, solute transport, and mass exchange between the conduit and matrix domains in a karst aquifer. The analog validates the predictions of a numerical model and demonstrates the need of laboratory analogs to provide verification of proposed theories and the calibration of mathematical models.     

Atmospheric Aerosol over a Southeastern Region of Texas: Chemical Composition and Possible Sources

Speciated samples of PM_2.5 were collected at a site in Jefferson County, Texas by US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) from July of 2003 to August of 2005. A total of 269 samples with 52 species were measured; however, 22 species were excluded in this study because of too many below-detection-limit data. The data set was analyzed by positive matrix factorization (PMF) to infer the sources of PM observed at the site. The analysis identified ten sources: sulfate-rich secondary aerosol I (35.9%), sulfate-rich secondary aerosol II (21.0%), cement/carbon-rich (11.7%), wood smoke (8.8%), metal processing (6.3%), motor vehicle/road dust (5.7%), nitrate-rich secondary aerosol (3.3%), soil (3.2%), sea salt (2.6%), and chloride depleted marine aerosol (1.6%). Sulfate and nitrate mainly exist as salts. The two sulfate-rich secondary aerosols account for almost 57% of the PM_2.5 mass concentration. The factor containing highest concentrations of Cl and Na was attributed to sea salt due to the proximity of the monitoring site to the Gulf of Mexico. The chloride depleted marine aerosol was related to the sea salt aerosol. Cement/carbon-rich, wood smoke, metal processing, and motor vehicle/road dust factor were likely to be the local sources.     

区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵构建方法的初步研究——以四川省为例

借鉴新一代的时间管理理论——"时间管理优先矩阵",提出并分析了区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵的概念。分别以区域绝对和相对地震应急能力作为优先建设矩阵中"紧迫与否"和"重要与否"的定量化评价指标,构建了区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵,划分了能力建设的四种类型,即需重点建设且紧迫性较强的区域类型(第Ⅰ类)、需重点建设但紧迫性较弱的区域类型(第Ⅱ类)、次重要建设但具一定紧迫性的区域类型(第Ⅲ类)和次重要建设且紧迫性较弱的区域类型(第Ⅳ类),在区域能力建设过程中应当遵循从第Ⅰ类到第Ⅳ类建设力度由重到轻、时间由急到缓,逐步开展的原则。最后,以四川省为例,以县(市)为基本评价单元,给出了四川省未来地震应急能力建设的优先等级类型。